Automakers are offering some of the best deals on a new car this weekend. So should you buy a new car between now and Cyber Monday?
Before you do, take a minute to ponder the future of transportation. You probably don't spend too much time thinking about how you get around. Your choices are simple: You own a car. When you fly somewhere, you rent one or call an Uber.
But that's about to change dramatically.
The line between leasing and owning, between sharing and renting, is about to become blurred beyond recognition. In a not-too-distant future, autonomous vehicles, car sharing and new subscription models will radically change the way you travel, say experts. Auto manufacturers, car rental and sharing companies can see this future on the horizon. More importantly, so do travelers (and I count myself among them).
Should you buy a new car?
So, should you buy a new car?
To get an idea of what's about to happen, spend a little time with car rental consultant Neil Abrams.
"We're in a transformative stage in the car rental industry," he recently told me. "The old way of doing business has ended."
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Abrams says these moves are signs of a more sweeping change that's about to overtake the $30-billion-a-year car rental business. It will result in what only a few years ago was unthinkable: a radical new transportation paradigm, where sharing, subscriptions and leasing are preferred over ownership. In that world, cars will drive themselves and Apple, General Motors, Hertz, and Google will be in the same business.
"Things are evolving at a very accelerated rate," he added.
Chris Brown, the publisher of BusinessFleet magazine, says the evidence of change is all around us.
"Much of the news has shifted from the vehicles themselves to the services auto manufacturers are offering around the vehicles," he explained.
Indeed, the L.A. Auto Show is now called AutoMobility LA. He noted that the auto industry would reportedly lose 300,000 to 400,000 new vehicle sales next year. New services, such as vehicle subscriptions, satellite connectivity and personal drivers, suggest a migration is under way from building vehicles to providing services.
Are Americans falling out of love with the automobile?
Attitudes toward driving are shifting, too. A new survey by Arity, a mobile technology company, suggests people aren't as tied to their cars, and to car ownership, as they once were. Drivers spend an average of only 6.7 hours per week driving, clocking an average of only 107 miles per week. Fully one-third of drivers say the amount of time they spend sitting in the car is "very frustrating," and more than half say they would rather spend time doing more productive tasks than driving.
Everyone seems to be hopping on board this trend, from companies such as Clutch, Carma Car and Flexdrive, which develop both technology that supports dealerships and vehicle subscription services, to major car manufacturers, including Audi's On Demand, Ford's Canvas, GM's Maven and Volvo’s Care by Volvo. I covered these services and their applications to travelers in a recent USA Today column.
"Subscription car services make a lot of sense," says Susan Shaheen, a University of California Berkeley expert on transportation systems. "We've already moved from an ownership model to the access model in mobile phones, movies and music -- and now cars."
Rental and sharing companies see changes ahead
Car rental companies have also taken a different approach. Some have seen the trend coming for a long time.
Back in 1997, Enterprise Holdings -- which owns Alamo Rent a Car, Enterprise Rent-A-Car, and National Car Rental -- trademarked the term "virtual car." By "virtual" it meant drivers could have access to a car when they needed it, for however long they needed it, without owning a vehicle.
"We recognized even back then what was happening," Enterprise spokeswoman Laura Bryant told the trade publication Automotive News. "It doesn't matter whether you rent for an hour, a day, a week, a month. It's all the same to us. It's just a different product, but in the end, we're delivering a virtual car when and where you need it."
Car sharing companies see the future in a similar way. Turo also expects car ownership to decline as more people rent or share vehicles. But ownership will not disappear. Instead, those who own cars will be able to maximize the return on their investment, which means the car will no longer be a depreciating asset sitting in their driveway.
"There will be less car ownership," says Steve Webb, a spokesman for Turo. "But the ownership will be more economically sound."
Travelers are cooling to wasteful car ownership
The most interesting shift, though, is happening on the consumer side -- which, in a sense, is the only one that really matters. As the Arity survey suggested, drivers are unhappy with the way they use their cars. I spend all day listening to drivers through my nonprofit consumer advocacy site, and I hear the same thing.
If I could sum up their frustrations, here's how I would put it: They're tired of feeling as if they have to buy the latest model, which looks an awful lot like last year's model. They feel as if having the vehicle sit in their driveway, regularly demanding tributes of car insurance, maintenance and taxes, is a waste of money and resources. They believe there are more efficient, less expensive, ways of getting around.
And they don't want to buy a new car.
My attitude toward mobility has changed, too. I spent almost an entire year without a car and relied on rentals and car sharing to get from point "A" to point "B." It felt liberating. At the end of the year, I tried to sign up for one of the vehicle subscription services, but they were not available in Arizona at the time.
I now own a Honda CR-V. I'm sure it will be my last car.
Why you shouldn't buy a new car
So what, exactly, will the future look like for transportation? Is it a network of autonomous cars that you pay for per use? A collection of cars that are owned by individuals, but available for sharing? A fleet of rental vehicles to which you could subscribe? It could be all of these -- or a combination of them -- that define your future transportation options.
No one knows what the future of transportation will look like, only that it will be radically different from today. It isn't really a question of what will happen, but when.
All of which brings us back to the original question -- should you buy a new car or not? Having spoken with many transportation experts, and watching how consumers have changed the way they think about mobility, I would carefully consider any purchasing decision. Self-driving vehicles are just around the corner, and they represent a quantum leap in automotive technology. Electric vehicles are close to going mainstream, too. Buying a new car now might be an investment in old technology unless you plan to turn your car into a revenue-generating machine through a platform like Turo.
Maybe this is a good year to wait and see what will happen next.
